CENTRAL COMMITTEE BLESSES KEY POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REPORTS AFTER DEBATE ON GLOBALIZATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HANOI 001493

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV, E, EB, DRL, INR/EAP
CONFIDENTIAL

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STATE PASS USTR AMB FISHER/DAUSTR DAMOND
WHITE HOUSE FOR DEP/ASST TO POTUS LBRAINARD
NSC FOR RAVIC HUSO
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP LEW STERN
USDOC FOR 4431/MAC/AP/OKSA/HPPHO
USDA FOR FAA/AO/SHUETE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/10/2010
TAGS: PGOV ECON ETRD PREL VM
SUBJECT: CENTRAL COMMITTEE BLESSES KEY POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REPORTS AFTER DEBATE ON GLOBALIZATION



1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY DCM DENNIS HARTER;
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


2. (C) SUMMARY: THE TENTH COMMUNIST PARTY PLENUM,
WHICH CONCLUDED JULY 4, FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON
FINALIZING KEY POLICY DOCUMENTS FOR THE NINTH PARTY
CONGRESS NEXT MARCH. THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS
AGREED ON DRAFT TEXTS OF THE POLITICAL REPORT, FIVE-
YEAR ECONOMIC PLAN, 10-YEAR SOCIAL/ECONOMIC STRATEGY
PLAN, AND PARTY STATUTE, ALL OF WHICH NOW GO TO LOCAL
AND PROVINCIAL PARTY CONGRESSES FOR DISCUSSION
BEGINNING IN AUGUST. GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU NOTED
THE PARTY WILL CONTINUE TO ADHERE TO A MULTI-SECTOR
ECONOMY IN WHICH THE STATE PLAYS A LEADERSHIP ROLE,
AND HE CALLED FOR CONTINUING THE PARTY-BUILDING AND
RECTIFICATION CAMPAIGNS, WHICH HE ADMITTED HAD MET
WITH LIMITED SUCCESS. THE PLENUM FEATURED BROAD
DEBATE ABOUT THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE IMPACT OF
GLOBALIZATION ON VIETNAM AND GAVE GENERAL ASSENT TO A
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GOVERNMENT INITIATIVE TO DEVELOP A "KNOWLEDGE-BASED
ECONOMY" TO MAKE GREATER USE OF INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY. ACCORDING TO PARTY OFFICIALS, THERE WAS
NO SPECIFIC DISCUSSION OF THE BILATERAL TRADE
AGREEMENT OR PERSONNEL ISSUES. END SUMMARY.

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PLENUM FINALIZES DRAFT REPORTS FOR PARTY CONGRESS
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3. (U) THE 165 CURRENT MEMBERS OF VIETNAM'S COMMUNIST
PARTY (CPV) CENTRAL COMMITTEE MET FOR THEIR TENTH
PLENUM SESSION FROM JUNE 26-JULY 4 IN HANOI. THE
PLENUM'S PRIMARY AGENDA WAS TO FINALIZE THE KEY
DOCUMENTS FOR THE NINTH CPV CONGRESS, WHICH IS
TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO BE AT THE END OF MARCH 2001.
ACCORDING TO A BRIEFING BY CENTRAL COMMITTEE DEPUTY
HEAD OF IDEOLOGY DAO DUY QUAT, THE PLENUM MEMBERS
AGREED ON "MOST POINTS" OF THE DRAFT TEXTS OF THE FOUR
KEY REPORTS -- THE POLITICAL REPORT, THE ECONOMIC PLAN
FOR 2001-2005, 10-YEAR SOCIAL/ECONOMIC STRATEGY REPORT
FOR 2001-2010, AND THE PARTY STATUTE.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: THIS PLENUM FINALIZED THE WORK OF
THE NINTH PLENUM IN APRIL, AT WHICH TIME THE CPV
LEADERSHIP HAD EXPECTED TO FINISH THESE DOCUMENTS.
THIS DELAY SUGGESTS THAT THE PARTY MAY HAVE TROUBLE
STAYING "ON SCHEDULE" TO HOLD THE CPV CONGRESS BY THE
END OF MARCH. FIVE YEARS AGO, THE CPV EIGHTH CONGRESS
WAS DELAYED SEVERAL MONTHS TO FINISH THE CONSULTATION
PROCESS AND REACH AGREEMENT ON KEY DOCUMENTS. ARGUING
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AGAINST A DELAY THIS TIME, HOWEVER, IS THE FACT THAT
HANOI WILL BE HOSTING THE ASEAN MINISTERIAL, POST-
MINISTERIAL, AND ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM MEETINGS NEXT
SUMMER, PROBABLY IN JULY. END COMMENT.


5. (SBU) THOUGH THE DRAFT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC
DOCUMENTS WERE NOT RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC OR
CIRCULATED OUTSIDE THE PARTY, THERE WERE NO SURPRISES
REGARDING THE THEMES HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PLENUM
COMMUNIQUE OR IN BRIEFINGS FOLLOWING THE PLENUM.
PICKING UP THEMES CITED IN RECENT SPEECHES BY CPV
GENERAL SECRETARY LE KHA PHIEU AND IN THE COMMUNIQUE
FOLLOWING THE NINTH PLENUM IN APRIL, THE CENTRAL
COMMITTEE ANNOUNCED IT WILL FURTHER OUTLINE HOW
VIETNAM PLANS TO DEVELOP ITS "MULTI-SECTOR, MARKET-
ORIENTED SOCIALIST ECONOMY." OVERALL THE PLENUM
CONTINUED THE PARTY'S EMPHASIS ON STABILITY AND
INCREMENTAL ECONOMIC POLICY CHANGE.


6. (SBU) IN A PRESS CONFERENCE AFTER THE PLENUM, QUAT
SAID THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE HELD EXTENSIVE DEBATE OVER
FOUR MAIN SUBJECTS THAT THE POLITBURO AND PARTY
CONGRESS DRAFTING COMMITTEE WERE LOOKING AT REGARDING
THE PARTY CONGRESS DOCUMENTS:

-- AN EVALUATION OF THE DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL
SITUATIONS, WITH ATTENTION TO THE OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES FACING VIETNAM IN THE 21ST CENTURY;

-- THE FORMS OF OWNERSHIP ALLOWED IN VIETNAM AND THE
VARIOUS ECONOMIC SECTORS IN THIS PERIOD OF "TRANSITION
TO SOCIALISM";

-- BUILDING AN INDEPENDENT AND SELF-RELIANT ECONOMY;

-- DIRECTIONS FOR THE CPV'S "PARTY BUILDING" IN THE
COMING YEAR.

(COMMENT: THE RUBRIC OF "TRANSITION TO SOCIALISM" IS
HOW THE CPV DESCRIBES WHERE VIETNAM IS ON THE ROAD TO
ITS GLORIOUS "SOCIALIST" FUTURE, DESPITE THE FACT THAT
MARKETS ARE PLAYING AN INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT ROLE IN
THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY. END COMMENT.)
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7. (U) SPEAKING AT THE CLOSE OF THE PLENUM, PHIEU
AFFIRMED THE CPV WOULD CONTINUE TO ADHERE TO A MULTI-
SECTOR ECONOMY IN WHICH THE STATE PLAYS A LEADERSHIP
ROLE. HE REVIEWED, IN DIALECTICAL FASHION, BOTH THE
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENTS AND SHORTCOMINGS OF
VIETNAM IN RECENT YEARS AND SUGGESTED THE KEY TASKS
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, INDUSTRIALIZATION AND
MODERNIZATION IN THE YEARS AHEAD.


8. (C) AN OFFICER AT THE CHINESE MISSION IN HANOI
INFORMED POLCOUNS THAT THIS YEAR'S POLITICAL REPORT IS
MUCH MORE STREAMLINED THAN IN PAST YEARS: 63 PAGES,
WITH 10 MAIN THEMES. ACCORDING TO THE PRC MISSION,
THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE 1996 POLITICAL REPORT AT THE
EIGHTH CONGRESS, WHICH WAS UNWIELDY AT MORE THAN 100
PAGES AND HAD LITTLE THEMATIC UNITY. THE THEMES CITED
BY QUAT (PARA 6 ABOVE) COMPRISE AT LEAST FOUR OF THESE
10 THEMES, ACCORDING TO THE PRC EMBOFF, AND WE BELIEVE
THAT, BROKEN OUT INTO SUB-THEMES, THEY MAY COMPRISE
THE BULK OF THE POLITICAL REPORT.

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PLENUM FOCUSES ON GLOBALIZATION, THOUGH NOT BTA
-------------- --


9. (U) IN RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS FROM THE MEDIA AND
DIPLOMATS, QUAT SAID MUCH OF THE PLENUM DISCUSSION
FOCUSED ON GLOBALIZATION, INCLUDING ITS POSITIVE AND
NEGATIVE IMPACT. THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE ALSO DISCUSSED
AND GAVE GENERAL ASSENT TO A GOVERNMENT INITIATIVE TO
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DEVELOP A "KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY" TO MAKE GREATER
USE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY. (WE WILL REPORT
FURTHER ON THESE ISSUES IN FORTHCOMING SEPTEL.)


10. (SBU) IN RESPONSE TO A REPORTER'S QUESTION, QUAT
SAID THE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT (BTA) WAS NOT
DISCUSSED SPECIFICALLY, THOUGH THERE WAS MUCH GENERAL
DISCUSSION ON GLOBALIZATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION.
CHOOSING HIS WORDS WITH OBVIOUS CARE, QUAT DESCRIBED
THE THEN-UPCOMING TRIP OF TRADE MINISTER VU KHOAN TO
WASHINGTON TO MEET WITH US TRADE REPRESENTATIVE
BARSHEFSKY AND NOTED VIETNAM'S INTEREST IN CONCLUDING
THE BTA SOON. HE SAID "IT IS HOPED BOTH SIDES WILL
REFLECT ON THE ALL THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES" AT
STAKE CONCERNING THE BTA, AND THAT IF A TEXT CAN BE
AGREED UPON THAT "CONFORMS TO THE PRINCIPLES OF
EQUALITY AND MUTUAL BENEFIT," THEN THE BTA CAN BE
SIGNED SOON. (COMMENT: THOUGH A CENTRAL COMMITTEE
REPRESENTATIVE, QUAT IS NOT A KEY PLAYER ON THE BTA,
AND WE DO NOT READ INTO HIS RESPONSE ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE, AS IT IS CONSISTENT WITH OTHER RECENT
GVN STATEMENTS ON THE BTA. END COMMENT.)

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DOCUMENTS PASSED TO LOCAL CONGRESSES FOR DISCUSSION
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11. (C) ALL OF THE KEY PARTY CONGRESS DOCUMENTS WILL
NOW BE TRANSMITTED TO THE LOCAL AND PROVINCIAL PARTY
CONGRESSES FOR DISCUSSION BY LOCAL CPV MEMBERS AT
"GRASSROOTS LEVELS." ACCORDING TO THE CPV'S POLICY OF
"DEMOCRATIC CENTRALISM," THE CPV MEMBERS WILL PROVIDE
FEEDBACK AND INPUT TO THE DRAFTING COMMITTEE THAT IS
FINALIZING THESE DOCUMENTS FOR PRESENTATION.


12. (U) QUAT SAID CPV CONGRESSES AT ALL SUBORDINATE
LEVELS -- FIRST LOCAL LEVELS AND LATER PROVINCIAL AND
MUNICIPAL LEVELS (THE LATTER FOR LARGE CITIES SUCH AS
HANOI, HO CHI MINH CITY AND DANANG) -- WOULD BEGIN
MEETING IN AUGUST. QUAT SAID THE PARTY'S NEXT PLENUM
WOULD BE HELD AFTER ALL THE LOCAL CONGRESSES ARE
CONDUCTED, LIKELY IN OCTOBER OR NOVEMBER. ANOTHER CPV
REPRESENTATIVE STATED THERE WOULD BE YET ANOTHER
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PLENUM (WHICH WOULD BE THE TWELFTH) PRIOR TO THE PARTY
CONGRESS (PRESUMABLY AT THE BEGINNING OF 2001). QUAT
SAID THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DOCUMENTS WOULD BE
PUBLISHED OPENLY IN EARLY 2001 SO THAT THE VIETNAMESE
PUBLIC AT LARGE COULD HAVE A CHANCE TO COMMENT ON THE
DOCUMENTS PRIOR TO THE CONGRESS. (SEPTEL WILL REPORT
FURTHER ON THE ROAD TO THE PARTY CONGRESS AND THE
MEETINGS LEADING UP TO IT.)

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PARTY-BUILDING, SELF-CRITICISM, AND STANDING BOARD
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13. (U) AT THE PLENUM, GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU ALSO
CALLED FOR CONTINUING THE PARTY-BUILDING AND
RECTIFICATION CAMPAIGN, WHICH HE ADMITTED HAD MET WITH
LIMITED SUCCESS. (NOTE: FOR THE PAST YEAR THE CPV HAS
BEEN ENGAGED IN A CRITICISM/SELF-CRITICISM CAMPAIGN,
WHICH HAS LED TO THE CENSURING OF SEVERAL SENIOR PARTY
AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, INCLUDING FORMER DEPUTY
PRIME MINISTER LOC, MINISTER OF PLANNING AND
INVESTMENT GIA, AND FORMER CUSTOMS CHIEF DINH.) PHIEU
URGED THAT THE PARTY CONTINUE ITS EFFORTS TO BUILD A
STRONGER ORGANIZATION AND MAINTAIN PRINCIPLES AND
INTEGRITY. HE RECOMMENDED THAT THE PARTY CONGRESS
MEMBERS CONTINUE THIS CAMPAIGN AFTER THE CONGRESS.
UNLIKE THE NINTH PLENUM THAT ENDED APRIL 19, PARTY
PERSONNEL ISSUES WERE NOT DISCUSSED SPECIFICALLY,
ACCORDING TO QUAT.


14. (U) IN RESPONSE TO A REPORTER'S QUESTION, QUAT
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SAID THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE VOTED TO RETAIN THE PRESENT
STRUCTURE OF THE POLITBURO STANDING BOARD, COMPRISED
OF THE CPV'S FIVE MOST SENIOR MEMBERS. AT THE LAST
PLENUM, THE CPV HAD CONSIDERED RETURNING TO A
POLITBURO SECRETARIAT, COMPOSED OF STAFF PRESUMABLY TO
HELP THE SENIOR POLITBURO MEMBERS DEAL WITH THE PRESS
OF BUSINESS ON THEIR SCHEDULES. HOWEVER, QUAT SAID
THE PLENUM WOULD NOW RECOMMEND TO THE PARTY CONGRESS
TO MAINTAIN THE PRESENT STRUCTURE.


15. (C) IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER QUESTION, QUAT SAID
THERE WAS NO DISCUSSION OF WHETHER TO COMBINE THE
ROLES OF PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY AND STATE PRESIDENT.
(COMMENT: WE UNDERSTAND THIS ISSUE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW
PHIEU TO ATTAIN THE DUAL STATUS SIMILAR TO THAT HELD
BY PRC PRESIDENT JIANG, CONTINUES TO BE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THE PARTY LEADERSHIP AND MAY YET BE ADOPTED AT
THE PARTY CONGRESS, THOUGH THE OUTCOME IS UNCERTAIN.
END COMMENT.)


16. (C) COMMENT: THIS PLENUM CONTAINED LITTLE OF
SURPRISE. THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE FINALIZED DRAFTS OF
THE KEY PARTY REPORTS, AND WE SEE LITTLE VISION AMIDST
THE THEMES HIGHLIGHTED. THE BROAD DEBATE ON
GLOBALIZATION AND A "KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY" IS
INTRIGUING TO US; OUR DISCUSSIONS WITH GOVERNMENT AND
THINK TANK SOURCES SUGGEST THERE IS A GROWING
REALIZATION AT MID-LEVELS OF THE CPV AND GOVERNMENT OF
THE IMPORTANCE OF VIETNAM'S MOVING FORWARD WITH
ECONOMIC REFORMS IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO PARTICIPATE IN
THE BENEFITS OF GREATER TRADE AND THE POSSIBILITIES OF
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY. HOWEVER, AS ALWAYS IN THIS
HIGHLY PATERNALISTIC POLITICAL CULTURE, WHAT DECIDES
THE DAY IS WHAT THE SENIOR-MOST LEADERS OF THE
POLITBURO THINK ON THESE QUESTIONS. EXPERIENCE SHOWS
THEY PREFER A CAUTIOUS, INCREMENTAL APPROACH. END
COMMENT.
PETERSON

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