Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
00DAMASCUS3013
2000-06-13 18:30:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Damascus
Cable title:  

ASAD LAID TO REST, BASHAR ERA BEGINNING, SYRIANS ADJUST TO NEW REALITY

Tags:  PGOV PINR SY 
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O 131830Z JUN 00
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1438
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RYAN C. CROCKER, REASON 1.5 (B) 
AND (D) 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RYAN C. CROCKER, REASON 1.5 (B) AND (D) SUMMARY -------------- 1. (C) SUMMARY. IN THE PAST THREE DAYS, AS MANY SYRIANS SAT NUMBLY ABSORBING THE NEWS THAT THEIR PRESIDENT, LEADER, AND FATHER FIGURE OF THREE DECADES HAD DIED, SON BASHAR AL-ASAD HAS QUIETLY AND SO FAR EFFECTIVELY ASSUMED CHARGE; HE AWAITS ONLY OFFICIAL PARTY AND CONSTITUTIONAL BLESSING. WE BELIEVE THIS WILL COME QUICKLY AND WITHOUT DISRUPTION. THE PARTY CONGRESS THAT WILL PROMOTE BASHAR TO PARTY HEAD WILL BEGIN JUNE 17, ALTHOUGH NOT WITH UNANIMOUS ENTHUSIASM. IN A CAREFULLY CHOREOGRAPHED FUNERAL DISPLAY, SENIOR SYRIAN OFFICIALS, WITH DEFMIN MUSTAFA TALAS IN THE LEAD, LENT THEIR FULL SUPPORT AT OFFICIAL CEREMONIES JUNE 13 IN DAMASCUS. THE ERA OF HAFIZ AL-ASAD, WHO, ON JUNE 10, DIED EXACTLY 33 YEARS LATER TO THE DAY THAT ISRAEL FIRST REOCCUPIED THE GOLAN, IS OVER.. END SUMMARY. SYRIANS GATHER IN SHOCK--AND SORROW -------------- 2. (C) MINISTER OF HEALTH DR. MUHAMMAD AL-SHATTI, ESCORT TO THE U.S. DELEGATION, TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE NATION WAS STILL "IN A STATE OF SHOCK." BEFORE 6 A.M. THE MORNING OF ASAD'S FUNERAL JUNE 13, SYRIANS FROM ALL CORNERS HAD BEGUN TO GATHER IN THE CENTRAL AREA WHERE HIS CASKET WOULD BE CARRIED IN WALKING PROCESSION. WHILE REPUBLICAN GUARD AND POLICE SECURITY WAS THICK ALONG THE FUNERAL ROUTE AND THE AIRPORT ROAD, THE MANY THOUSANDS OF EMOTIONAL MOURNERS MADE THEIR MARCH AND DEPARTED WITHOUT INCIDENT. THE FACT THAT MANY OF OUR CONTACTS HAVE FOR DECADES FELT NO PROBLEM EXPRESSING THEIR FRUSTRATION, RESENTMENT, OR OPPOSITION TO THIS REGIME DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THE IMPORTANCE OF ASAD'S PASSING IS STILL BEING ABSORBED, AND FOR SOME, THE FEELING OF LOSS IS STRONG. THE EMOTIONAL IMPACT IS HEIGHTENED BY UNCERTAINTY AND APPREHENSION ABOUT THE FUTURE. AT THE PALACE: BASHAR IN CHARGE -------------- 3. (C) NEWLY-MINTED GENERAL BASHAR AL-ASAD ACTED NOT ONLY AS A BEREAVED SON, BUT ALSO AS THE LEADER OF SYRIA AND THE PARAMOUNT HOST TO A STREAM OF FOREIGN DIGNITARIES ARRIVING TO PAY THEIR CONDOLENCES AND RESPECTS TO HIS FATHER THE MORNING OF JUNE 13. THE MASSIVE, GLASS-WALLED PALACE THAT SITS ON THE HILLS OVERLOOKING DAMASCUS WAS FILLED WITH A RESPECTFUL BUZZ AS LARGE DELEGATIONS WERE LED, IN EFFICIENT PROCESSION, TO STAND BEFORE ASAD'S CASKET. DELEGATES THEN PROCEEDED TO BRIEF MEETINGS WITH FOREIGN MINISTER FAROUK AL-SHARA, AND THEN GREETED COMMANDER IN CHIEF BASHAR AL-ASAD, WHO STOOD ALONE (NOTABLY WITHOUT HIS BROTHERS OR UNCLES) IN A LARGE RECEIVING ROOM TO THE SIDE. THE MESSAGE WAS CLEAR THAT THIS WAS NOT A FAMILY GATHERING; GENERAL BASHAR WAS THERE AS CHIEF OF STATE. HE APPEARED CALM, POISED, AND AUTHORITATIVE. 4. (C) PROMINENT AMONG SENIOR SYRIANS WHO LINED THE FORMAL RECEIVING ROOM WAS DEFMIN TALAS, LENDING SUPPORT TO SEVERAL REPORTS THAT SINCE ASAD'S DEATH TALAS HAD ASSUMED THE ROLE AS NUMBER ONE ADVISER TO BASHAR. FM SHARA ACTED AS CO-HOST, SHUTTLING BETWEEN HIS DUTIES ON THE SYRIAN DELEGATION AND RECEIVING AND BIDDING GOODBYE TO VISITING DIGNITARIES. THE LEBANESE LEADERSHIP AND OTHER LEBANESE WERE IN STRONG EVIDENCE AND SAT OPPOSITE THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IN THE RECEIVING HALL. NO ONE OPPOSING, BUT NOT EVERYONE HASTENING TOWARD THE FUTURE -------------- 5. (C) THE FUNERAL CEREMONIES WENT SMOOTHLY, INDICATING THAT THE SYRIA'S CURRENT LEADERSHIP AND BA'TH PARTY MACHINERY WAS ABLE TO FUNCTION EFFECTIVELY IN A CRISIS SITUATION. THE BA'TH PARTY CONGRESS WILL BEGIN AS PLANNED JUNE 17, ALTHOUGH NOT ALL PARTY MEMBERS ARE RUSHING TO EMBRACE THE NEW ERA. MINISTER OF HEALTH AL- SHATTI TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT IT WAS BASHAR WHO HAD INSISTED THAT THE BA'TH PARTY CONGRESS GO AHEAD AS PLANNED, AN IMPORTANT STEP ON MOVING THE COUNTRY FROM MOURNING THE PAST TO BUILDING THE FUTURE. HE REMARKED THAT, LEFT TO ITS OWN DEVICES, THE OSSIFIED PARTY LEADERSHIP PROBABLY WOULD WAIT ANOTHER SIX MONTHS, AND SAID THAT WHILE "NO ONE WAS OPPOSED, NOT EVERYONE WAS HASTENING TOWARDS IT." ON THE MUCH-DISCUSSED ISSUE OF ASAD'S RIVAL AND BROTHER RIF'AT, BOTH THE RUSSIAN AND EGYPTIAN AMBASSADORS DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT DESPITE THE RIF'AT STATEMENT IN SPAIN CHALLENGING HIS NEPHEW. 6. (C) COMMENT. THE SYRIAN SUCCESSION IS PROCEEDING AS SMOOTHLY AND CALMLY AS POSSIBLE. BASHAR PRESIDED AS LEADER OF SYRIA DURING THE FUNERAL PROCEEDINGS; SENIOR SYRIANS WERE THERE TO LEND HIM SUPPORT. DESPITE THE PROMINENT PRESS PLAY, FEW OF OUR CONTACTS TAKE THE RIF'AT CHALLENGE SERIOUSLY. THE ERA OF HAFIZ AL-ASAD HAS OFFICIALLY PASSED AND THE BASHAR ERA HAS BEGUN. THE SON APPEARS WELL ON HIS WAY TO GAINING POWER IN AN ORDERLY FASHION. THE QUESTION NOW IS WHETHER HE CAN KEEP IT. UNLIKE JORDANIAN KING ABDULLAH, WHO ASSUMED THE THRONE BOLSTERED BY INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT AND LEGITIMACY, BASHAR'S QUEST FOR LEGITIMACY WILL HINGE MORE ON SYRIA'S COMPLEX INTERNAL SITUATION. CROCKER